The Big Con (Part 2): Subhadip Nandy’s inadequate defense to his ineffective systems

I was not surprised by the inadequate and deflecting replies that I got from Subhadip Nandy on my back-test results. (For people who missed my previous blog on the subject, read here: Previous Blog )

Except for one system, no data was given to support or refute any of the back tests! I am certain he wouldn’t even have done any back tests on the systems he is ‘teaching’. Before I get into specific replies, some general observations about Subhadip Nandy’s disposition towards this enquiry:

- No data whatsoever! Like I mentioned earlier, this is my biggest problem with his approach to trading. Nothing is data backed. Except for the one back test, for one of the systems (that I also mentioned in my previous blog), there is absolutely nothing! I fail to understand how can an established trader like Subhadip Nandy get away with it?

- Deflecting left, right & centre. This is a classic response from people who know what they are doing is wrong — deflect, deflect and deflect some more. Instead of commenting on the back tests with data, he tried to nit pick on things which weren’t relevant — from saying I needed to put in more effort to calling me an option seller and everything in between. Mere bhai, how is any of it relevant to the backtest results?

- Questioning authenticity of the back test. This is another way people who are guilty respond. Questioning the authenticity of the data. I have been very open about my back tests from the beginning — in fact, I even shared it (along with raw data) with him on the hand-holding group and 1-on-1. His response then: Nothing, because Subhadip Nandy knew I was right. His response now: Call it a hack job, which his ‘bhakts’ and some potential candidates who will pay him for his training workshop will buy into.

- Testimonials to the rescue. A strategy which all such trainers deploy to add credibility to their ‘courses’ is by showing testimonials of attendees. What’s wrong with that you might ask? Well, here’s the problem — if you are going to ask a trainee right after the workshop whether it was good, obviously they will say so (like yours truly) — one is charged with new information and feels like they have learnt new systems. But are they, at that point in time, the best judges for the effectiveness of the strategy? Emphatic no! They just learnt it and with no data to support the effectiveness of it how do you expect anyone to be a good judge of it?

Let me delve into specific responses now, along with screen-grabs of his replies on twitter (which I might add have since been deleted by him).

Yes, HPRP model gives the 16% CAGR return if traded only on nifty. I never denied that and have highlighted the same in my previous blog post too. But remember, this doesn’t consider brokerage and transaction costs however small those might be. If I do a SIP in one of the large cap funds or nifty bees, I will get 12–14% CAGR. So, the question to you is who would want to put so much time, effort and money only to improve the returns by mere 3% basis points. Talk to as many successful traders as you would like, with capital anywhere between 10L to 50L, it is not difficult to generate 30–35% CAGR and that’s what one expects while trading with this much capital. Your participants are not running hedge funds with 50cr capital so that they would be content with 15% returns. And thanks for enlightening the world about pledging an FD to trade. If it were not for you, the world woudn’t have known about this miraculous strategy. Surely, I didn’t pay 40k to know that instead of cash, I can make an FD and trade on that. Lastly, when your backtest says that your best performing system is generating 16% CAGR, why suggest that one can make about 40% CAGR trading your systems?

This is the deflection I talked about earlier. Obviously day trading is about speed and watching screens, but I am not the only one to point out that your seminar was not about day trading, it was about positional systems. Of the two days, you didn’t even spend an hour on intraday trading. So stop deflecting and reply with data on the back-tests.

You conveniently ignored the fact that I also said that this COI and option chain analysis is completely discretionary. Any system which doesn’t have clear predefined rules for entry and exit can’t be backtested and isn’t even a system. So, it all boils down to posting MTM screenshots to make people believe that these systems work. Coming to your counter that hard work doesn’t suit me — fucking deflecting again. Trading your positional systems would require EOD data updating, running scanner of every system, noting down the entry and exit points for stocks coming under scanner in these systems. So, I took the pain of AUTOMATING them all. And I extended that automation to everyone in the group. Started a telegram channel where everyone could receive the entry signals for each of your systems.

P.S. — Those who have attended his seminar and still believe that his systems work and want to receive the notification can DM me and I will add them to the telegram channel.

1. Yes, I am an option seller and I am happily trading for a living since past couple of years. I don’t take insane leverages and most of the time about 30% of my capital remains free. I needed diversification in my trading style, so I was open for directional systems and attended your seminar. If your systems provided any sort of directional edge, I would have continued trading your systems. Like I have said earlier, I don’t give a shit if I am buying or selling options, as long as I am getting decent returns.
2. Again, a baseless argument. Just because I extended the automation to all FnO stocks doesn’t mean that I am trading all of them. I received a lot of requests from other people from the group that they wanted other stocks too in the scanner and that’s the only reason I included all stocks in the code. Jisko jo stock trade karna hai wo kare!! Remember this 1-on-1 chat? or do you want screenshots of that chat?

When I backtested this system, I shared the results with you privately as well as on the hand-holding group. And these results included raw files too with details on each and every single trade. I kept asking you that given the negative returns, do you have anything to say about it but you kept your mouth shut. While my argument is based on the backtest results/trade details, yours is completely in the air. You did share the backtest result of HPRP on nifty, why haven’t you shared the backtest results of any of your other systems?

If it is positive on both indices for 8 years, show me the backtest results?

Every time it was those handful of people who said that they made money. Many a times they too were making losses and were highlighting that too. Why are you being selective in picking up responses? If you want I can share those screenshots also. Anyway, that’s not at all the point of discussion. The only point of discussion should be that your best performing system is generating 16% returns on nifty. So my only suggestion to the newbies planning to attend your seminar is if you are happy with 16%, go attend it.

When new traders are introduced to a system that is showing hindsight analysis as to how system gave a buy/sell signal before a major event, people are in the awe of it. Moreover, nobody will give negative feedback about any workshop knowing well that they still have to trade with the trainer during the hand-holding month.

If you really want honest feedback, talk to them after a few months. They will be as disillusioned as I am, because kata hum sab ka hai.

And for the benefit of your potential trainees and to prove the same point, let me show you some feedback given to me by people from your group separately. They were struggling to make money using your systems like I did and some of these chats are even from before I published the first blog.

Bonus screen-grab: It was a good strategy to show your followers on twitter that you are not petty and want to discuss everything openly. Then you blocked my handle. Kis kis ko block karoge dada — itne logon ka chutiya kaata hai mere jaise aur log aate rahenge. Perhaps you should quit twitter instead :)

tl;dr —Like I mentioned in my previous post beware of ‘trainers’ who will shy away from data and back tests. Be very careful who you give your hard-earned money to - like we have seen in the case of Subhadip Nandy - nothing is as it seems.

Since this is of grave concern, I would urge you to share this as much as possible so that we can spread awareness about dubious, fraud and ineffective ‘training’ workshops. I got conned but I don’t want anyone else to go through the same experience and waste money on such workshops. I would also urge the ex-trainees to come out in public and support this initiative.

Barbad gulistan karne ko bas ek hi ullu kaafi tha, har shaakh pe ullu baitha hai anjaam-e-gulistan kya hoga!!